The vanguard poll, from Survation, reflects a sample of just 369 people in the area which is home to around 26,000 people. The survey, conducted between May 18 and 22, asked who people would vote for in the ballot on Thursday June 18. Tonight (Saturday) the poll revealed 43% of those surveyed would vote for Mr Burnham as their new MP, but the margins are tiny as Reform UK trail by just three points with 40% who said they would vote for their candidate, plumber Robert Kenyon.
The gap to any other party is massive in the poll, perhaps salving fears from the Conservatives that their candidate may take votes away from Reform UK and help Labour.
It appears none of the other parties are in contention, according to this survey. The Liberal Democrats scrape just 4% of the vote, Greens with 3% and the Conservaties manage just 2%.
The far-Right party, Restore Britain, managed to beat the above mainstream parties and claim 7% of the votes, according to the poll.
The Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer‘s position as Labour leader remains precarious, with Andy Burnham seeking a return to Parliament in the Makerfield by-election and former health secretary Wes Streeting outlining an alternative policy platform.
Scores of Labour MPs have called for the Prime Minister to stand down in the wake of an electoral hammering earlier this month across English councils, Wales and Scotland.
Mr Burnham launched his Makerfield campaign on Friday, saying “a vote for me in this by-election is a vote to change Labour”.
Mr Streeting has set out policies including a wealth tax to bring back the New Labour-era Sure Start programme and planning reforms to fund council homes to prevent children growing up in temporary accommodation.
Reform has aimed the plan at winning more voters in Labour’s former industrial heartlands as it seeks to prevent Labour’s Andy Burnham winning the Makerfield by-election.
Nigel Farage has promised a £5 billion tax break for workers doing extra hours. The “hard work bonus” would create a tax-free allowance for overtime above a 40-hour week for workers earning less than £75,000.
Reform leader Mr Farage said the plan would “restore the appeal of a strong work culture”, with overtime becoming tax-free for 90% of employees.
The party said it could meet the expected £5 billion annual cost of the policy through a £40 billion package of cuts and savings.