The Trump administration is reportedly gearing up to hasten the collapse of the Castro legacy in Cuba, with discussions under way about a potential military operation on the island as early as this summer.
While an outright invasion has yet to be authorised, with President Donald Trump maintaining he would prefer a peaceful transfer of power, the Trump administration is said to be continuing to pile economic sanctions on the island. However, should an invasion take place, sources suggest it would be swift, bearing similarities to the strikes carried out in Venezuela earlier this year.
“The president does not want boots on the ground for more than 48 hours. It’s a quagmire in the making. This could get messy,” a Trump adviser told Axios.
A further senior administration official told the outlet that the removal of the Castros’ remaining influence would unfold gradually and in stages. The administration is also said to be wary of embarking on yet another military venture, given that negotiations to bring the Iran war to a close — which the President had promised would last only weeks — remain ongoing.
“The best way to describe it is ‘accelerationism,'” an unnamed senior administration official said. “But we don’t want to kill off the regime just yet. There’s a method to this. It’s in stage.”
Talks surrounding the dismantling of the communist regime, widely regarded as the driving force behind anti-U.S. sentiment across Latin America, began several months ago — and notably, the first concrete steps towards making this a reality took place elsewhere.
Earlier this year, Washington launched operations in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, to apprehend dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who faced accusations of narco-terrorism across the Americas. Venezuela has long been regarded as Havana’s economic lifeline, providing oil shipments that enabled the island to sustain a crucial revenue stream.
Following Maduro’s capture, oil deliveries to Cuba have ceased entirely, plunging the island into economic turmoil and heightening tensions between the long-standing adversaries, Havana and Washington.
In preparation for a potential escalation, the U.S. Southern Command, responsible for military operations throughout the Caribbean, conducted a multiagency military exercise simulating potential military action in Cuba.
“Everything is on the table, but no invasion is planned or imminent,” one official said. “When POTUS says go, we’re ready for anything.”
Talk of a potential invasion of Cuba follows the Justice Department’s indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro over the 1996 downing of civilian aircraft piloted by Miami-based exiles.
The indictment accuses the 94-year-old former president of ordering the shootdown of two small planes operated by the exile group Brothers to the Rescue while serving as Cuba’s defence minister. The charges include murder and destruction of an airplane.
“For nearly 30 years, the families of four murdered Americans have waited for justice,” Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said from Miami during a ceremony honoring the individuals killed during those incidents. “They were unarmed civilians and were flying humanitarian missions for the rescue and protection of people fleeing oppression across the Florida straits.
“There was a warrant issued for his arrest. So we expect that he will show up here, by his own will or by another way,” Blanche added, when pressed on how far American authorities would go to bring Castro to face those charges on home soil.
President Donald Trump warned that “we’re going to see,” what comes next for Cuba in the wake of the charges. Yet while the administration has remained deliberately vague about the island nation’s future, some experts believe this signals that the White House is actively pushing for regime change — and may resort to extreme measures to get there.
“The indictment appears to be another shot across the bow in terms of gaining leverage over Cuba at the negotiating table. The U.S. is already using significant economic tools to bring the island to heel,” Michael Lebowitz, former Department of Justice National Security Division attorney, who was also a Guantanamo prosecutor, told The Express US.