UK weather map (Image: WXCHARTS)
Weather models indicate that temperatures across the UK could soon climb above the official heatwave threshold for three consecutive days, with the mercury potentially reaching 32C.
Met Office forecasters warn of an increased likelihood of heatwaves over the coming months, and another now appears to be on the horizon following last month’s sweltering conditions, which saw temperatures soar to 35.1C — the highest temperature ever recorded in May.
The GFS weather model predicts temperatures will begin climbing on June 17, bringing warm highs of 28C to the south-east, 27C in East Anglia, 26C in the north-west and Midlands, and 24C in North Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to remain somewhat cooler, according to the data.
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Charts indicate temperatures could then reach the 30C mark in the south-east on June 18, with 29C possible as far north as Yorkshire. Parts of Northern Ireland could even reach 26C, while Wales looks set to sit firmly in the mid-to-high 20s.
The most intense heat is anticipated on June 19. The GFS model suggests highs of 30C or above are possible across large parts of England, with the mercury potentially climbing to 27C in areas of southern Scotland. The south-east of England is again forecast to be the hottest region, with 32C possible.
In total, the data reveals that 13 counties could experience highs of 31C or more on June 19, all located across England.
UK weather map (Image: WXCHARTS)
UK counties facing 31C or more
Weather models show UK faces new heatwave
Should the data displayed by this GFS model run materialise, it would represent another official heatwave – at least in certain parts of the country.
An official heatwave is declared when temperatures climb above the heatwave threshold for three consecutive days. The heatwave threshold ranges from 25C to 28C across different UK counties. It stands at 28C in the south-east – where temperatures tend to be warmer – and falls to 25C the further away from the south-east you travel.
This GFS model data indicates temperatures reaching 28C, 30C and then 32C in the same areas from June 17 to June 19 – meaning it would qualify as an official heatwave.
Map showing heatwave threshold across UK (Image: Met Office)
UK weather map (Image: WXCHARTS)
Met Office weather forecast for June
The Met Office’s latest forecast for the second half of this month suggests southern regions could soon experience “hot” conditions. However, “thunderstorms” are also possible.
The forecast (covering June 18 to July 2) states: “The start of the period is likely to be relatively settled, with high pressure in the vicinity of the UK bringing drier conditions to most parts of the UK.
“However, some showers or spells of rain are still possible. Winds will mostly be light with temperatures probably above normal. Towards the end of June, low pressure may begin to have more of an influence, especially across the south where heavy showers and thunderstorms become more probable. It may also become hot in parts of the south.”