When Burnham set out his plans for power in Manchester on Monday, he talked about devolution, council houses and Manchesterism, but didn’t mention immigration once. Then on Wednesday, he did a sharp reverse ferret, angrily demanding the deportation of Shabir Ahmed, the Rochdale rape gang monster just released after 14 years in prison. On Monday, his message was aimed at Labour Party activists. On Wednesday, he was talking for Britain, declaring: “Like everyone, I want this vile criminal out of the country.”
As ever, Burnham wants it both ways. But he can’t have it. Those hoping Ahmed, who had dual British-Pakistani citizenship but was stripped of his British citizenship following his conviction, will soon be deported are almost certain to be disappointed. Despite his appalling crimes, I can’t see it happening. Britons will be furious when they realise he’s trying to pull a fast one.
Burnham added that: “Victims must come first.” As if. Grooming gang victims have come last all along, and in Labour, that’s still the case. He also pledged that: “I will ask the home and foreign secretaries to review all possible options – and they should consider nothing is off the table.” Many who hear those words might assume the monstrous grooming gang ringleader will soon be on a plane to Islamabad. He won’t. Cabinet colleagues will check the law, and quickly conclude that everything is off the table. Burnham is taking us for fools. It’s going to rebound on him, because he’s just raised expectations he can’t meet.
The odds on Britain deporting Ahmed are vanishingly small. Burnham is either kidding himself, or worse, us. Some Labour MPs, particularly those representing Red Wall seats, are pushing for changes to the 1971 Immigration Act. This gives additional protection to some people who arrived in Britain before 1973, as Ahmed did.
Parliament could change that law if ministers were determined enough. And weren’t derailed by leftie MPs, lawyers and activists who think it’s racist. But it still doesn’t mean Ahmed will go. Why? Because Pakistan would have to agree to take him back.
And that’s the last thing it wants to do. They think he’s a scumbag too. And if one case succeeds, Islamabad could face pressure to accept other offenders who have lived in Britain for decades, often after renouncing their Pakistani nationality too. It doesn’t want them either. Who would?
Burnham could threaten Pakistan, of course. He could raise dire threats of blocking study visas, as home secretary Shabana Mahmood has already done with applicants from Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Sudan. In the unlikely event that Labour extends that to Pakistan, there’s another sticking point. The European Convention on Human Rights.
Burnham could pull the UK out of the convention, which makes deporting foreign criminals almost impossible. But leftie activists would go berserk. They’d compare him to Adolf Hitler or worse. So Ahmed will stay. And voters will conclude that nothing has changed. Either way, Burnham is going to lose an awful lot of votes.
That can only be good news for Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK. Farage has made it clear that the first thing he would do as PM is pull out of the European Convention on Human Rights. Kemi Badenoch’s Tory Party also want out. Burnham can’t do it. Labour would revolt. So he’s stuck. And Ahmed is laughing at all of us.