Nigel Farage rivals Alfred Hitchcock as an unparalleled master of drama and suspense. His midday announcement that he would make a statement on his “future in public life at 2pm” caused anyone who takes an interest in this country’s national life to sit bolt upright. For two hours, speculation buzzed about whether he would take a step back from the political frontline. But when he stood before the cameras he signalled he is more determined that ever to wrest control of Britain from Labour and the Conservatives.
By triggering a by-election he will attempt to seize the limelight just when Andy Burnham would hope to be enjoying a prime ministerial honeymoon. Labour – if it fields any candidate – could be humiliated in Clacton. Mr Burnham is likely to escape the test of a Labour leadership contest before moving into Number 10 but Mr Farage will daily deride him as a PM without a mandate and call for a general election.
Likewise, Mr Farage would relish the prospect of going head to head with the Conservatives in this Essex constituency where they had a majority of nearly 25,000 in 2019. Pollsters point to Kemi Badenoch hitting unprecedented approval ratings, but talk of a Tory revival would be knocked on the head if Mr Farage romps to victory.
The Conservatives might want to sit this contest out, condemning the by-election as a folly designed to distract from legitimate questions about Mr Farage’s donors. But refusing to get onto the pitch when there is a chance to bring the Reform UK leader’s days as an MP to end could leave the Conservatives looking as if they are running away from a historic battle.
This is a chance for Mr Farage to reboot the Reform UK project. A big win in Clacton would help the party move on from disappointing by-elections in Caerphilly, Gorton and Denton and Makerfield, where candidates have in no way matched the charisma of Mr Farage.
If the July 30 election of a new Mayor of Greater Manchester is another underwhelming result for Reform, a Clacton win would be all the more important in keeping alive the party’s dream of forming the next government.
Crucially, the Clacton campaign will give Mr Farage hourly opportunities to present himself as an alternative prime minister to Mr Burnham. While his foes want to portray him as a lifelong politico who is the beneficiary of the generosity of fabulously wealthy men, he will recast himself as the anti-establishment warrior.
Instead of sitting on the Reform bench in the House of Commons he will be out and about in Essex. His fans will flock to the seat to help campaign and thousands of citizens will line up for a selfie.