Families are being warned to brace for another hike in their energy bills this October, after the conflict in the Middle East drove up the wholesale cost of gas.
Experts are urging families not to wait until they turn the heating back on this winter to find out what it will cost them. One major supplier has already sounding the alarm over a steeper-than-expected rise to the price cap. Wholesale UK gas prices have jumped 15$% in just the last week, as fighting in the Gulf continues to rattle global energy markets and unsettle the suppliers who buy gas and electricity months ahead of billing customers.
It is the latest in a string of shocks this year, with tensions in the region repeatedly driving up costs and adding to the uncertainty facing millions of households already struggling with the price of keeping their homes warm.
In a warning to customers, EDF has revised its own forecast for October’s price cap, suggesting the increase could be bigger than previously thought – with the supplier also pencilling in a further small rise in January.
It comes on top of a price cap that already rose by 13% on July 1, pushing the typical household bill up to £1,663 a year. Anyone who has not switched supplier since then is already paying more than they need to – and now faces the prospect of a second increase within months if the more pessimistic forecasts prove correct.
Despite the turmoil in the wholesale markets, comparison website Uswitch.com says there remain a number of fixed tariffs on the market priced well below the level of the cap.
The cheapest is a 15-month deal from Outfox Energy, priced at £1,424 a year for a typical household – £239 less than the current cap.
Uswitch is urging households on standard variable tariffs, who are most exposed to swings in the wholesale market, to act now rather than risk a shock bill in the depths of winter.
Fuse Energy offers the next cheapest option, with a 15-month fixed tariff costing an estimated £1,453 annually, representing a 13% saving compared with the cap. The supplier also has a 13-month fix priced at £1,471 a year, around 12% cheaper than the cap.
Another option from Outfox Energy is a 12-month fixed deal with an estimated annual cost of £1,517, offering households a saving of around 9% against the current price cap. The figures are based on data from Uswitch, correct as of 8am on July 14, 2026.
Ben Gallizzi, energy expert at Uswitch.com, said: “With wholesale markets swinging on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, suppliers are already recalculating what October could look like – and the early signs point to another increase.
“Our advice to households is simple: don’t wait until you put the heating on to find out what it’s going to cost you. If you’re still on a standard variable tariff, you’re exposed to a market that’s currently moving in the wrong direction.
“Choosing a fixed deal now means you know exactly what you’ll pay through the coldest months. Run a quick comparison today, as the best rates on the market are changing quickly.”