It’s hard to understate the significance of the war in Iran. Shock and awe across the Middle East, oil prices skyrocketing and one of the world’s most brutal dictators assassinated. All in 24 hours! What though of the wider and long-lasting impact? Back home, the PM is in his favourite position – sitting on the fence – with our bases in Cyprus allegedly in the firing lane despite not being actively engaged in this war.
Sir Keir finds himself in a bind: the Labour Left will never vote for UK involvement yet the PM may find this course of action unavoidable. What then? Relying on the Tories and Reform to squeak through a vote in Parliament. How could he survive that? Wider still, there are the geopolitical implications. The world has again seen US might in all its glory. As with the recent toppling of the Venezuelan leader, China and Russia could do nothing but stand by.
Russia has potentially lost its drone supplier and southern shield if Iran falls. Meanwhile China could well lose an all-important energy supplier. Both are critical for Moscow and Beijing as they pursue their goals in Ukraine and Taiwan respectively.
That said, Trump acting unilaterally and invading countries with impunity may encourage the Russians and Chinese going forward. They know that – unlike Iran and Venezuela – there’s not a cat chance in hell they will be attacked like this by the US.
Moreover – if Uncle Sam can do this – why can’t they, will be the logic of Putin and Xi. Not hard to imagine Russia and China using similar excuses about threats to sovereignty to justify their expansionist objectives.
We are then waking up to a volatile world order: one where might is right and few places safe, regardless of whether or not one sees merit in the Israeli-US actions. To be fair, there are plenty of human rights-abusing scumbags out there: why not go after them too?
Bringing it all back home, this war could well split the Labour Party, already having lost faith in its seemingly rudderless leadership.
A new poll by Opinium just put Reform 12 points ahead (up from 8) – despite the recent by-election defeat in Manchester – and nearly half of Labour voters could switch to the Greens according to separate data.
Our PM is therefore on notice as the world is set ablaze.