Fears are growing that Iran could target a second vital global shipping route in a move that risks sending petrol prices even higher across the world. While much of the world’s attention is focussed on events in the Strait of Hormuz, a global shipping corridor through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, an Iranian military official has threatened to escalate “insecurity in other straits, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea”.
The narrow Red Sea passage, which links Europe to Asian energy supplies, has been described as a potential “second Strait of Hormuz” due to its importance to global oil flows. Disruption there could have a direct knock-on effect on fuel costs worldwide. Danny Citrinowicz, a former top Iran researcher for the Israeli Defense Forces, told Politico: “I have no doubt in my mind that eventually the Houthis will enter and they will do two things — first, block the Bab el Mandeb strait, and second, try to prevent the Saudis from having tankers in [its] Yanbu port taking oil.”
The Houthis disrupted global shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb between 2023 and 2025, and despite a ceasefire, never stopped issuing threats in the region.
However a closure of the strait would represent a sharp escalation of Iran’s asymmetric playbook, designed to maximise disruption in the face of overwhelming US military might.
The Bab el-Mandeb ranks as the world’s fourth-largest maritime choke point.
Positioned between Yemen on one side and Djibouti and Eritrea on the other, it spans just 20 miles at its widest.
Despite its size, it is a lifeline for global trade. Vast volumes of goods pass through the corridor, from electronics and clothing to furniture and everyday household items, alongside key food commodities such as wheat, corn and coffee.
Until now, the Houthis have stopped short of entering the conflict directly — but analysts warn that stance may not hold if fighting between the US and Israel intensifies.
Gregory Brew, an Iran specialist at the Eurasia Group, said even limited intervention could trigger major disruption.
“If the Houthis decide to get off the sidelines and join this war — and even to do so in a pretty small way, fire a couple missiles, fire a couple drones — then offloading tankers becomes impossible, and this goes from a 10 million barrel a day disruption to a 15 [million] to 17 million barrel a day disruption,” he said.
The knock-on effect on global markets could be severe, with crude prices potentially surging from around $90–$100 a barrel to as high as $150, he added, a spike that would likely be felt quickly by motorists and households worldwide.