John Curtice reveals real reason for Labour victory | Politics | News

Political guru Sir John Curtice has been crunching the numbers after Labour’s election landslide and revealed the real reason the party swept to power might not be to Sir Keir Starmer‘s liking.

The election expert has found that despite Labour securing a mammoth 412 MPs in Parliament, they might actually be taking their seats not because they have become more popular.

In fact writing for the BBC Sir John said he has found evidence a dramatic Conservative decline in support, almost 20 points, is the real reason Labour have done so well.

In stark contrast Labour support in Englad Sir John said had only increased by a paltry two points, coupled with a large 17 point increase in support in Scotland.

And it appears the point is not lost on Sir Keir Starmer. When the new Prime Minister entered Downing Street yesterday he was carful to address those that had not voted for the Labour party in the election.

Giving his first address outside Number 10 Sir Keir said: “Whether you voted Labour or not, in fact especially if you did not, I say to you, directly: My government will serve you.”

Having raked over the coals of the election Sir John Curtice said it wasn’t necessarily a good performance by Labour that won the election, but rather the Tories poor performance.

He wrote: “Labour have secured their landslide on a lower share of the vote (35 percent in Great Britain) than won by Tony Blair in each of his three victories, as well as the 40 percent won by Jeremy Corbyn in 2017.

“Indeed, the party’s share of the vote is the lowest won by a post-war single party government. All in all this looks more like an election the Conservatives lost than one Labour won.”

He added: “Conservative support fell most heavily in seats they were trying to defend. In seats where the party won 25 percent of the vote in 2019 they are down eight points. However, in seats where they won more than 50 percent they are down 29 points.

“One key reason is that support for Reform rose more sharply, by 16 points, in seats that the Conservatives were defending – twice as much as in seats Labour were defending.”

Sir Keir Starmer chaired the first meeting of his new Cabinet today (Saturday) having confirmed Rachel Reeves as Britain’s first woman chancellor, Angela Rayner as his deputy and Housing Secretary and Pat McFadden as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

David Lammy was officially named Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper Home Secretary, John Healey Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting Health Secretary and Bridget Phillipson Education Secretary.

Shabana Mahmood and Ed Miliband will retain their briefs of justice and energy respectively, although former attorney general Emily Thornberry was replaced by barrister Richard Hermer KC.

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