Keir Starmer has ended this most tumultuous of week’s the same way as it began – he is still Prime Minister. Just.
He survived by the skin of his teeth after a failed coup on his seemingly doomed leadership. But Sir Keir is now weaker than ever before, a Zombie Prime Minister controlled by soft left puppeteers. This was the week that his miserable, directionless premiership officially began its death throes.
The “Scandalson” affair, in the eyes of many, was an unforgivable lapse of judgment. His choice to elevate the architect of New Labour’s darkest arts, Peter Mandelson, to the post of Britain’s Ambassador to the United States has irrevocably shattered the carefully-constructed veneer of decency that Sir Keir desperately relied upon.
And his decision to press ahead with a peerage for his former chief Spin Doctor, Matthew Doyle, despite it being public knowledge he had campaigned for a sex offender, has well and truly flushed that down one of the Palace of Westminster’s broken toilets.
Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch hit the nail on the head when she accused the PM of “stuffing government with hypocrites and paedophile apologists”. It is the curse of all failed Prime Ministers that the very trait which propelled them to the top is what eventually brings them down.
Sir Keir, the man who rose as a former Director of Public Prosecutions, the avenging angel of “ending the chaos and sleaze” of the past, is now drowning in a swamp of his own making. A sleaze scandal that dwarfs anything seen since the days of Harold Macmillan. The Labour leader’s hebdomadis horribilis (terrible week) began last Sunday when his Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney, dramatically quit.
McSweeney said wanted to take “full responsibility” for advising the prime minister to appoint Mandelson for the plum diplomatic job. Instead of buying Sir Keir time, it plunged No 10 into freefall.
Things got worse on Monday morning when director of communications, Tim Allan, a former adviser to Sir Tony Blair, resigned just five months after being brought in to steady the Downing Street ship. Yet despite this double blow Downing Street maintained the prime minister would not stand down and remains “upbeat and confident”.
Then the merde really hit the fan when Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called on him to quit. Sir Keir was fighting for survival hour by hour.
One more puff of wind and he would have been a gonna. Nigel Farage, speaking to the Express in Birmingham, where his Reform Party was holding a major rally, while the drama was unfolding in Westminster, certainly believed so.
And rally host, Jeremy Kyle, kept updating the 2500-strong crowd by giving them updates on Sir Keir’s current status, joking that “it’s 4.09pm and Starmer is…..still Prime Minister”.
But that puff of wind never came. One by one, like hostages, his Cabinet, as well as Wes Streeting, who many believe was behind the Sarwar coup, reluctantly came out and backed the Prime Minister.
Wannabe leader Angela Rayner also rallied round her boss. Even though it was only Monday, the drama was far from done yet.
Fresh pressure continued to be heaped on Sir Keir over Doyle’s peerage while chaos raged over who was actually running the Civil Service. Chris Wormald was ousted as those now controlling the prime minister demanded change.
The role will now be shared by three senior civil servants until a replacement is appointed, and it leaves Sir Keir without a permanent cabinet secretary, chief of staff, or director of communications. So where does this leave him now?
There is no doubt he remains in peril. The next pinch points are fast approaching on the horizon. In a fortnight Labour are expected to lose the Gorton and Denton by-election, with the Greens or Reform UK the beneficiaries.
A humiliating defeat will no doubt cause further rumblings. The Spring statement on March 3 is likely to uncover old economic wounds too, especially with official figures this week showing the economy is continuing to flatline.
Then there’s the May 7 elections in Wales, Scotland and councils across England in which Labour faces a bloodbath. And there’s the possibility of further bombshell revelations from the Mandelson police and parliamentary investigations. Furthermore, leadership rival, Wes Streeting, continues to act as if he is about to pull the trigger.
His decision to pre-emptively release his WhatsApp messages with Lord Mandelson was regarded as a naked attempt to “clear the decks” ahead of a potential leadership contest. The Health Secretary insists that he is supportive of the prime minister and wants to focus on reducing waiting lists.
Sir Keir is the most unpopular British prime minister since records began, his ratings even worse than Liz Truss’s during her 49-day stint in office. He is paying the price for years of political manoeuvring.
After being elected leader of the Labour Party as a successor to the hard-left Jeremy Corbyn, promising to keep Corbyn’s radicalism without his incompetence. Instead, in opposition Sir Keir expelled his socialist predecessor and avoided any policy announcements that might attract criticism.
In government, his approach changed again. Fearing the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, the prime minister adopted a tough posture on immigration. This proved unpopular with his own voters.
For the past year Sir Keir has styled himself as more of a technocrat while pushing through left-wing legislation, such as workers’ rights. After this crisis-hit week Sir Keir is going to shapeshift again. This time, Labour’s soft-left backbenchers will be pulling the strings.
Chief among them is Ms Rayner. Sacked in September over her dodgy tax affairs, the former deputy Prime Minister is the punters’ favourite to be Labour’s next leader.
A campaign website for her briefly appeared online in January, though she dismissed it as a fake. The working-class northerner is popular with grassroots members but remains under investigation by tax authorities.
Andy Burnham, the Manchester mayor who is popular among party members, cannot stand because he is not an MP. Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, has said that his previous experience as Labour leader has “inoculated” him from ever wanting to stand again.
For now, Sir Keir will struggle on, doubling down on left-wing policies to maintain the support of his MPs. How long he can carry on is anyone’s guess. One senior Labour source says the Prime Minister’s “days are numbered” once he has “carried the can for May 7”.
For now, like this time last week, Sir Keir remains in No 10. But he’s not in charge.