Keir Starmer has been pathetic (Image: PA)
In a remarkable 48 hours over the weekend the Middle East has gone from an uneasy quasi-peace to an all out war. The immediate catalyst for the outbreak of hostilities was the break down of talks between the USA and Iran in Geneva last Friday. Trump wanted Iran to stop its nuclear programme, its ballistic missile manufacture, and its support for its various militia proxies across the Middle East.
Iran stalled and sought to extend the talks but refused to accept the US agenda, and Trump lost patience and ordered his troops into action. The signs that direct action was imminent, though, were there long before the first air strikes on Tehran and elsewhere. The dramatic build up of US military power in the Gulf and eastern Mediterranean was a clear indication that Trump meant business. It was only a matter of time.
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Now we have a full-scale conflagration. Israeli and US air strikes have targeted numerous sites across Iran and decapitated the Iranian government, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and many of his henchmen.
Iran has retaliated using a scattergun approach and launched ballistic missiles and drones at multiple Gulf states using the basing of US troops there as an excuse to attack. Most of its weapons have been shot down but quite a few have got through and caused damage. And now a Saudi petrochemical facility is on fire after a drone strike, and hotels and civilian locations in Dubai and elsewhere damaged.
The UK’s response to all of this has been, quite frankly, pathetic. Initially Starmer forbade the US from using RAF Fairford in the UK and and the joint US/UK base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean for any strikes against Iran. Then he changed his mind, and also said RAF jets could be used for “defensive purposes”.
Now that RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus has been hit by an Iranian Shahed one-way attack drone he has changed his mind again. It seems likely that the UK will now join the US and Israel in attacking Iran directly, on the historically established basis that the best defence is attack. And not before time.
Starmer’s pusillanimous and vacillating approach to this international crisis has all the marks of a weak leader. He appears to be caught between not wanting to show lack of support to the USA, still the UK’s strongest ally despite the recent cooling or relations, and similarly not wishing to upset his domestic voter base which has strong elements of anti-war and Muslim sympathies within it.
In seeking to walk this tightrope he may only succeed in satisfying neither. Plus his wavering has done the UK no favours internationally either.
What happens now? Well, the war continues as I am writing as both sides continue to attack each other, the US-led coalition via air strikes and land attack missiles and with the Iranians lobbing missiles and drones at multiple targets in a decidedly more indiscriminate manner.
When he initially announced Operation Epic Fury a couple of days ago Trump spoke of an anticipated four-day bombardment. He has since upped that estimate to four weeks as the extent of Iran’s furious response has become more apparent. I wouldn’t bet against that being extended yet again in due course.
The major card in Iran’s hand is the threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies flow, to all shipping. The US has not been blind to this possibility and has already carried out pre-emptive strikes against Iranian naval bases along their littoral shore.
But if the Iranians succeed in mining the Strait and stopping all movement of shipping, military and commercial, then all the bets are off. It may require the commitment of ground troops into Iran itself to prevent interference of clearance of the sea lanes.
In the meantime the air space over Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East is closed and most airlines have cancelled all flights into and through region. Hundreds of thousands of expats and travellers in transit to elsewhere are stranded.
The UK, we are told, is scrambling to make plans to evacuate British citizens back to the UK, but with no planes flying it’s hard to see how this will be done in the short-term. They may be stranded for weeks if not months unless something gives.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former Army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk