Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has triumphed in another pair of council by-elections, as Labour crashed to a devastating defeat by the Greens. The insurgent party stormed to victory in the Tottingham ward on Bury Council, coming from nothing to win 39.5% of the vote and wrest the seat from the Conservatives, whose vote share slumped by 19.1%.
And to prove it is not just winning votes from the Tories, Reform also gained the Wigmore ward in Luton from the Liberal Democrats with 32.9% of the vote. The Lib Dems’ 30.4% was a 24.2% drop from the last time an election was contested in the seat. The Greens, meanwhile, gave Labour a bloody nose by winning Rossendale’s Hareholme and Waterfoot ward, with Reform knocking Sir Keir Starmer’s party into third.
Labour’s vote share collapsed by 27.9%, while the Tories lost 17.6%.
It means that in the 228 council by-elections fought since May 2025, Reform has won 80, with the Lib Dems taking 64 and Labour just 17.
It indicates that Reform is on course to spark a political earthquake at the May local elections, in which a polling expert predicts it could win a staggering 2,260 seats.
Labour has been warned it could lose as many as 2,000 councillors in a brutal night, with the Tories also set to lose 1,000.
Zack Polanski’s Green Party is likely to be a huge beneficiary, boosting its numbers on councils across the country by about 450, according to leading psephologist Steve Fisher.
If his predictions come true, Reform UK’s gains would dwarf those of Labour under new leader Tony Blair in 1995.
In that year, Labour won 1,661 seats, paving the way for a landslide General Election victory two years later.
By contrast, the backlash against Sir Keir after a series of scandals could make 2026 Labour’s worst defeat on record.
The Prime Minister and his party have tanked in the polls after a series of controversial policies and U-turns, including on winter fuel payments and inheritance tax changes for farmers.
His premiership is said to be on the line after the Mandelson scandal, with questions raised over the PM’s judgement after he appointed the Labour peer as ambassador to the US despite his links to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.
A bad set of local election results in May could heap further pressure on Sir Keir to quit, critics have warned.