Inflation in the UK remained at 3% in the 12 months to February this year, data released on Wednesday shows, but experts have warned of “impending doom” when the impact of the Iran war is factored in next month. The 3% rise in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which gives a snapshot of the pace of price increases at a given time, was unchanged from the 12 months to January, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showed.
On a monthly basis, it rose by 0.4% in February 2026, the same rate as in February last year. The Bank of England (BoE) anticipates inflation to rise over the next few months and held its base rate at 3.75% last Thursday. The ONS’s chief economist, Grant Fitzner, said: “After last month’s slowdown, annual inflation was unchanged. The largest upward driver was the price of clothing, which rose this month but fell a year ago. This was offset by falls in petrol costs, with prices collected before the start of the conflict in the Middle East and subsequent rise in crude oil prices.
“A fall in the cost of alcoholic drinks due to promotional activity, compared with a rise last year, was also a downward driver, while little change in food prices, again compared with a small rise this time last year, added further downward pressure.”
But the national statistical institute noted that these figures are before war broke out in the Middle East in late February, so next month’s figures will price in rising petrol costs.
The conflict rages on with no sign of abating, as much as US President Donald Trump insists Iran wants a deal “so badly”.
Iran retaliated against the US-Israeli attacks by targeting US bases in the region. It also effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial global trade route – to the two nations and their allies, sending oil prices skyrocketing. Petrol prices are now over 144p a litre – up 12p since the start of the war on February 28.
Ben Perks, managing director at Orchard Financial Advisers, said April will see what some have dubbed “Trumpflation” come to the UK, as per Newspage.
“This is simply the quiet before the storm. It doesn’t take into account the impending doom that’s incoming in the form of war-fuelled inflation. The CPI data is pre-Iran conflict, and Trumpflation hadn’t taken hold of the UK when this data was being collated.
“As prices climb over the coming weeks and months, I’d expect to see a sharp rise in the figures in the next set of data. Just a month ago, Andrew Bailey was hopeful of a return to 2% inflation; now, we are staring down the barrel of the cost-of-living crisis 2.0.”
Craig Fish, director at Lodestone Mortgages, said the BoE is “stuck between a rock and a hard place”.
“February’s inflation figures came in as expected at 3%, but that’s almost irrelevant now,” he continued. “These numbers predate the conflict in the Middle East, and the Bank of England has already flagged CPI could climb toward 3.5% by Q3.
“Core at 3.2% shows underlying pressure isn’t going anywhere either. The 2% target feels like a distant memory right now. Rate cuts? Don’t hold your breath. With swap rates jittery and global uncertainty ratcheting up, the Bank of England is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
“Do they hold and risk choking the economy, or cut and risk reigniting inflation? Mortgage holders hoping for relief in 2026 need to plan for rates staying higher for longer than anyone wanted.”
Rohit Kohli, director at The Mortgage Stop, said core inflation is proving sticky – even without the impacts of the war feeding into the figures next month.
“This inflation figure is already out of date,” he warned. “The ONS collected prices before the Middle East war broke out. In short, the oil price spike and market jitters are invisible, at least for now.
“Worryingly, core inflation actually rose, while services inflation is still sticky at 4.3%. The Bank of England held its rates last week because they saw this coming. First-time buyers and anyone rolling off a fix need to stop waiting for the right moment, as it may not come.”