Reform boss Nigel Farage is minded to believe a new Labour leader would tack to the left, worsen Britain’s economic woes, spook the markets, be forced into unpopular austerity measures and catalyse an earlyish election. Which Reform would win! But what if an early election comes because of a different reason entirely? And what if Reform finds itself on the losing side of that trade? That is Farage’s big test in the Makerfield by-election. Because frankly the betting markets have Andy Burnham ahead.
Perverse as it sounds to many, the Manchester mayor has an X factor which could carry him home in what should be safe Reform territory. Worse still for Farage, pollster More in Common believes Labour would get an eight-point boost with Mr Burnham as leader, securing 30% of the vote to Reform’s 27%.
Put another way, nearly half of voters who switched from Labour to the Greens and Lib Dems would return, as would nearly one fifth of former Labour voters now opting for Reform and the Tories. At least long enough for Burnham to take the advantage.
That comes off the back of other polling which claims Burnham has more favourable approval ratings than Farage personally. Reform may hope this bounce would be temporary as reality sets in about the ‘king of the North’.
But what if his high tax and spend plans – never mind open borders plans and Rejoiner dream – prove popular short-term, enough for Burnham to call an early election to capitalise on his poll bounce? Meaning Farage is right about an early election but Burnham calls it from a position of (temporary) strength and wins.
While Robert Kenyon is as strong a candidate as Reform could field – with all the attributes Farage would want in a Red Wall seat – it may prove insufficient. Worse still for Reform, the ‘Burnham bounce’ could lead Burnham to go to the country early in anticipation of a win.
Farage must be prepared for this nightmare. The pressure would be incalculable because, frankly, if Reform loses that election it could miss its big chance and lose all momentum.
That makes Makerfield mission critical for Reform – the latter must now prepare for an earlier election where Labour could capitalise on a (brief but real) upper hand.