Nigel Farage’s local election success puts him on a path to power (Image: Express)
Nigel Farage knew the local elections were make or break in his march towards No 10 and threw everything at them. The Reform UK leader has been touring the country for months to speak to voters directly in the hope of persuading them to back his party in votes that are usually focused on bin collections and potholes. But Farage has a roadmap for power and knew that without a stunning performance in these votes the momentum behind his party would evaporate. He described the elections as Reform’s Becher’s Brook. It has to be cleared if there is any chance of going on to win.
Two councils sum up how the Turquoise tsunami keeps him on course.
Labour’s natural Red Wall heartlands had a dalliance with the Conservatives in 2019 but have now firmly fallen for Reform.
This was perfectly illustrated in Tameside, the council area that includes Angela Rayner’s constituency, where Labour has held power for nearly half a century.
One third of the council was up for election. Reform won 18 of the 19 seats available.
The lesson the Labour Party will learn from this? Not that voters in the traditionally working class part of Greater Manchester want people in jobs rather than on welfare, low legal migration and no illegal migration.
It will instead tack further to the Left, forgetting the voters it was set up to serve, focusing on the public sector classes.
That will work perfectly for Farage. As he joked when the results were coming in: “I would be very sad to see Keir Starmer go – he is the greatest asset we have got.”
Head south, to Essex, and Reform has demonstrated that it is also thriving in traditionally Tory strongholds.
Reform won 11 of the 14 seats up for election in Basildon, but crucially it was on a high turnout for local elections.
It’s not unusual for just one in five voters to bother heading to the polling booths to pick their councillors.
But half of those eligible in some wards in the Essex town turned out, which shows Reform’s supporters are really highly motivated to get their party in.
Farage declared that Reform is now the only truly national party, with support from the southwest of England, up to the northeast of Scotland.
But the Reform leader knows from his time heading up Ukip that a lot of support thinly spread is not enough to get him over the line.
To continue Farage’s Grand National theme, he still faces the Canal Turn, one of the most technically difficult parts of the course.
Senior figures in the party believe that the next stage involves crushing the Conservative party.
One privately admitted that to win the general election the only votes left to mop up now come from the Conservatives.
Success in the local elections is central to this plan. Party strategists believe that by showing they are the party on the right with momentum and widespread support they can win over those voters still backing Kemi Badenoch’s party.
They believe that when it comes to choosing the next government, voters on the right will realise that if they want to keep out the socialists, they will have to make a choice between Farage and Badenoch.
Reform believes those voters will look at which of those has the best chance of winning and back them rather than risk an increasingly left-wing Labour that could be forced into a rag-tag coalition with parties like the Greens and Liberal Democrats.
Standing outside Havering Town Hall in East London, where Reform has taken control, Farage said the Conservative Party will “cease to be a national party” with only a strong showing in “very affluent areas”.
He added: “We are competitive, right down from the southwest of England, up to the northeast of Scotland, and I would honestly say now, that we are the only true natural party that are competitive everywhere.”
Reform insiders admit the party faces a big structural challenge as it has to find thousands of men and women to stand as MPs, be selected as peers, fight more local council seats and work behind the scenes.
They believe that ultimately the Conservative party will fold into Reform and the desire of many to “unite the Right” will be complete.
The local election results mean Reform’s march towards power is now firmly on course.