Sir Keir is on a cliff edge, just waiting to be pushed off. Yesterday, he forced Labour MPs to defend the indefensible, and reject a bid to refer the PM to a Parliamentary sleaze inquiry over the Lord Mandelson scandal. They weren’t happy about it, but they held their noses and did their duty to the party, if not the country. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said “Labour MPs will rue the day that they voted against this motion”, and they already do, because they’re stuck with Starmer for now. So are the rest of us.
Starmer is safe until elections on May 7, which are set to be a bloodbath for Labour. At that point, the battle to replace him as PM will begin in earnest. And it’s going to be ugly for two reasons. First, the candidates will be playing the usual dirty tricks on each other. Angela Rayner is already sticking the knife in. Second, the wider general public doesn’t like the look of any of them.
Politicians are unpopular across the board, after years of drift and disarray under the Tories and now Labour. That loathing has hit new heights. And it will only get worse.
The PM has the lowest political favourability ratings of the lot, according to research from YouGov. While 22% of the public take a favourable view, 70% view him unfavourably. That gives him a net favourability rating of -48. Poor Sir Keir, or should I say, poor British public. So what about those jostling to replace him? Are they any more desirable?
Angela Rayner is clear favourite with the bookies. The public aren’t so taken. Her net favourability is a grisly-looking -33. She’ll have a job winning over the country from there.
So will energy secretary Ed Miliband. Labour members adore him, the public less so. Miliband lives on a different planet to the rest of us. Voters would prefer an earthling. His favourability rating is an ugly -31.
Wes Streeting is the third Labour MP eyeing up No 10, and has more common sense than Rayner and Miliband combined. Yet the public aren’t taken. He’s at -25. Yet voters do have the hots for one Labour politician. He’s got a positive popularity rating of +10. These days, that’s a stellar number.
That heart throb is Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham. On Monday, YouGov found that he outperforms all other leadership contenders. One in three Britons, 34%, reckon he’d do a better job than Starmer.
That’s an incredibly low bar, but it puts Burnham comfortably ahead of his rivals. Just 15% of us reckon Angela Rayner would be an upgrade on Starmer. That falls to 13% for Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting.
I’m not convinced by Burnham, he’s said some pretty clueless things. I suspect the public hasn’t had too close look at him yet, as he’s not in the Cabinet. Still, they like what they’ve seen so far.
There’s a problem though. Burnham isn’t an MP, and isn’t eligible to run for leader. Starmer may be a turkey, but he won’t vote for Christmas by giving Burnham a shot at winning a Parliamentary seat.
The public don’t get to vote on the new PM, only Labour MPs and activists. When Starmer falls, his replacement will sit ugly with the British public. After a few weeks in power, things could get even uglier.