The Money Saving Expert has issued Brits a warning about a potential spike in energy costs in the UK. Martin Lewis shared predictions on X (formerly Twitter) on what’s “likely to happen to energy bills”.
He said that “it ain’t looking good” for Brits, with the cost of wholesale natural gas in the UK sitting at 129.42p per therm, in a post published on July 14. Mr Lewis said: “The big changeable factor in the price we pay for home energy is wholesale rates.
“And this UK natural gas rate is the main driver of both gas and electricity bills, as gas is involved in electricity generation. Most of our bill isn’t wholesale rates. It’s policy costs, firm costs, distribution costs, and VAT. Yet, wholesale rates are the biggest varying factor.
He pointed out that the impact of the Middle East conflict, which started on February 28, “is clear”.
He said: “It’s the prime reason most people’s bills are rising. The latest Middle East escalation has seen wholesale prices re-spike, and this has a direct impact on the next three-monthly Price Cap, which starts in October. It’s based on the average wholesale rates from May 19 to August 18, 2026.
“Two weeks ago, it was likely that October’s Cap would be similar to July’s. Now, it’s very likely we’ll see a material rise for winter and that’s on top of July’s 13% rise.”
For fixed rates, Mr Lewis said: “The rate you can fix moves much more quickly, as it’s tightly linked to wholesale rates. A couple of weeks ago, the cheapest were 15% below the current Cap; now, it’s around 11%.”
This comes after Martin Lewis warned in May that Brits would see their energy bills continue to rise. Other cost-of-living experts agreed, expressing concern about the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices.
One individual commented on Lewis’ post, suggesting the price surge would result in “massive profits” for energy suppliers. He replied to offer his perspective.
He said: “For generators and distributors, almost certainly, the opposite for retailers, which is why we have to hope the stress testing Ofgem did works so we don’t see any go bust.”