Andy Burnham’s bid to become the next MP for Makerfield is beyond hugely significant. Firstly, it will likely decide who the next PM is. A Burnham win is basically a path to Number 10 for the so-called “king of the north”. A loss? Well, Sir Keir lives to fight another day. At least until Messrs Miliband, Rayner or Streeting mount a challenge, though none have anything like the same level of support as Burnham (in fact Streeting polls worse than Starmer among Labour members).
This will also be a Brexit referendum. Burnham may have rowed back on earlier comments about rejoining the EU (we know Streeting favours reversing the 2016 referendum) but the die is cast.
Reform has a card to play. Makerfield is pro-Brexit turf. Little wonder the party did so well in the area in May’s local elections. The big question is whether Burnham’s alleged star power can outpunch Reform’s demographic and political advantages.
Not only can Nigel Farage‘s party paint Burnham as something of a chancer, putting career over his mayoral constituents, they can legitimately claim this is a man who would not only double down on the worse excesses of Starmerism but could threaten a Brexit process heavily favoured locally.
Brexit then is on the ballot paper, as well as the country’s future, since Makerfield’s constituents effectively find themselves holding Britain’s leadership in their hands. Will they be persuaded by the Manchester mayor or will they put Brexit and immigration betrayal front and centre?
The betting markets give Red Andy the edge but with Reform yet to declare who their candidate is (and without yet knowing whether the Greens and Tories will eventually run in the seat) it would be a brave person who could say with total certainty which way this one goes.