Reform UK could be forced into a coalition with the Conservatives to govern Britain, as a major new poll reveals a political landscape so fragmented that no single party comes close to a majority.
New research by Electoral Calculus, produced for communications agency PLMR and based on Find Out Now surveys of 5,559 people between March 27 and April 7, suggests Nigel Farage would have the most MPs — 188 — but would fall well short of the 326 needed for a majority.
The Conservatives would trail on 159 seats, while Labour faces an extraordinary collapse from more than 400 to just 86. The Greens would pick up 71 constituencies — including an astonishing sweep of red strongholds across London, among them Sir Keir Starmer‘s own Holborn and St Pancras seat. The Lib Dems would win 61, the SNP 44 and Plaid Cymru 17.
What would a hung parliament look like?
Any government that did not involve both Reform and the Conservatives would require an extraordinary coalition of at least five Left-leaning parties — a combination without precedent in modern British politics.
Such a scenario would trigger intense haggling over policy, with smaller partners potentially able to demand focussed projects such as another Scottish independence referendum or a switch to proportional representation voting.
Is Reform’s momentum slowing?
The poll puts Reform’s national support at 24 per cent — down sharply from January, when the party was projected to win 335 seats. The Conservatives have recovered to 21 per cent, with Labour on just 17 per cent.
The research, which was reported on by the Daily Mail, uses the MRP technique — mapping poll findings on to the demographic characteristics of individual constituencies — and accounts for tactical voting, which the team believes will reduce Reform’s seat tally as opponents unite behind whoever is best placed to keep them out locally.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Reform remains the largest party, but is noticeably less popular than at its peak last year, with its national support sliding back to where it was at the start of 2025.
“Nigel Farage now faces the challenge of holding on to some voters drifting back to the Conservatives on his left and others possibly shifting towards Restore Britain as a new right-wing alternative.
“If fragmentation on the right increases, Reform could face similar challenges to those Labour has experienced due to the vote splitting on the left.”
What do pollsters say?
Kevin Craig, head of PLMR, said: “When it comes to pinpointing who voters want making decisions on their behalf, it is clear that Reform UK do not have the trust of the public.
“Reform’s momentum appears to be slowing, which points towards a more competitive environment and the likelihood of a hung parliament. The message right now looking ahead to the General Election is that it is all up for grabs.”
He added that the polling also highlighted a critical challenge ahead of the local elections, with many voters unable to identify who runs their local council — making it harder for any party to rely on its local record to win support.