The state pension triple lock – long seen as untouchable – is facing mounting pressure as war fears and a tightening squeeze on public finances force a rethink at the top of politics.
In an extraordinary shift, senior figures from both Left and Right are now openly questioning whether Britain can still afford it. Former Tory chancellor Sir Jeremy Hunt and Labour grandee Baroness Harman have both broken ranks, suggesting the policy may no longer be sustainable. Sir Jeremy warned pensioners might think differently if they realised the burden was falling on younger generations, while Baroness Harman said the system should be means-tested to help fund defence.
The triple lock guarantees pensions rise each year by the highest of inflation, wage growth or 2.5%. For years, opposing it was seen as electoral suicide. Now MPs across parties are signalling that the political mood is shifting.
Labour MP Graeme Downie said there is “an appetite in all parties” to revisit the policy, adding that if welfare is used to fund defence “there are no sacred cows”.
Pension surge outstrips workers
The scale of the increase has been stark. Since 2010, the state pension for a single person has risen from £423 a month to £1,048 – a jump of nearly 150%.
Over the same period, average wages have risen by just 66%, while inflation of 55% has wiped out most real-terms gains for workers.
Spending on pensioners has also surged – from 3.3% of GDP in the mid-1980s to a projected 5.4% by the early 2030s. The triple lock has played a key role in that rise, alongside an ageing population.
Economists warn the policy is increasingly difficult to sustain. Sir Charles Bean, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, said: “It’s a terrible policy… that is unsustainable.”
Defence pressures intensify
The debate has been sharpened by growing global instability and calls to boost defence spending. The UK currently spends 2.4% of GDP on defence, but NATO allies have agreed to raise this to 3.5% by 2035. That would require an extra £40bn a year -more than the combined budgets of the Home Office and Ministry of Justice.
At the same time, welfare spending is climbing. It is set to rise from 10.7% of GDP at the start of this Parliament to 11.2% by the next decade – equivalent to £406.9bn.
Of that, pensioner benefits alone will reach £196bn, up £45bn in just six years. Former NATO chief Lord Robertson warned: “We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.”
Costs far higher than expected
When introduced in 2010, the triple lock was expected to cost £5.2bn a year by the late 2020s. That figure has since ballooned to £15.5bn due to inflation shocks and strong wage growth.
Pensioners have benefited repeatedly:
- 10.1% rise in 2023
- 8.5% rise in 2024
With fresh inflation risks linked to geopolitical tensions, the cost could rise further.
Popular but under scrutiny
Despite the mounting bill, the policy remains hugely popular. Polling shows around 66% of voters support keeping it, while just 11% want it scrapped. But critics argue such support ignores the cost. Sir Charles said voters “always like having money spent on them if there’s no price tag attached”.
Changing picture of pensioner poverty
Supporters say the triple lock was needed to reverse decades of decline. But experts say the problem it was designed to fix has largely eased. Pensioner incomes are now around 84% of the population average before housing costs – up 11 percentage points since 2000.
Poverty among pensioners has fallen to around 15%, down from more than 25% in the 1990s. In contrast, children and working-age households are now more likely to be in poverty.
Mounting pressure for reform
Behind the scenes, there is growing acceptance in Westminster that change may be inevitable. However, both Labour and the Conservatives remain publicly committed to the triple lock for now.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has insisted manifesto pledges will be honoured, while shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said the Tories are “fully committed”.
What could replace it?
Experts suggest the triple lock could be replaced with a simpler system:
- Linking pensions to earnings
- Or combining earnings with inflation protection
One estimate suggests this could save around 0.5% of GDP – roughly £15bn a year.